Current market: DOWN
TTMI - T T M Tech
Had a nice channel going until a few days ago
– may be a better SHORT
SSW - Seaspan Corp
MNTA - Momenta Pharma
AH - Accretive Health Inc
This one may be over the cliff too far…
ARMH - A R M Holdings
That doesn’t bode well…
SMTC - Semtech Corporation
NO DEBT, earnings rising, looks like a good one!
Maybe should have waited for the 50SMA but it should still catch hold eventually – will add to LONG list
TIBX - Tibco Software
I have liked Tibco for a long time – maybe it’s because I am a systems integrator and know the value of this software ilk…
REVERSAL PATTERN – but which way? Judging from the volume I would guess down but will research more… Head and Shoulders pattern? 3 bases pattern?
ABV - Comp De Bebidas
CUP WITH HANDLE???
Great fundamentals too - THIS may be a BUY! Need to figure out a buy price…
Slow and steady grower…
Good growth but the P/E is super high – another dot com???
there are more but this is a good list to start
A sea of RED
Looks like a downward day for the S&P today
Euro strengthening sending the USD down further
LinkedIn is looking like a sell (still) @ 89 – short selling starts tomorrow
RIMM up a little
GMCR (Green Mountain) being added to Nasdaq this week may help it a little
ElPaso looking good still on weekly
Monthly
Market Update
Markets were up mixed yesterday
Dean Foods (DF) must have had a good quarterly number
Intel (INTC) also faired well rising over $5 in a month.
Monday, May 16, 2011
Market update week ending May 15 2011
Market sector leaders:
IBD:
Finviz:
Healthcare seems to be a winner for the last while. Financials the biggest loser? Maybe someone is finally catching on…
1. APPAREL
99 85 80 AA 38.17GildanA .8 r GIL 36.20 –0.90 –44 261 19o
99 91 77 AB 72.4 PhilpsV .2 PVH 69.85 –0.54 –59 421 17ò
99 96 92 B B 80.07UndrArmr UA 66.92 –1.14 –18 831 47o
2. CHEMICAL –1.0% Daily Change +12.59
99 87 88 AC+ 135 Lubrizol 1.1 r LZ 134.2 +0.07 –37 1.2m 13
99 93 90 AA–71.4 Albemar 1.0 ALB 68.26 –0.70 –51 502 17o
99 95 91 AA–41.8 Balchem .4 BCPC 41.15 –0.45 –15 76 34o
99 92 94 AB+190 NewMkt 1.4 rNEU 174.8 –4.25 –61 51 13ê
3. LEISURE –0.9% Daily
99 99 95 AB+2547Netflix rNFLX 246.5 +0.75 –11 5.0m 70o
96 99 95 AD 5617Priceline PCLN 520.6 –3.35 –26 842 35o
98 91 94 A B 115 Polaris 1.8 PII 102.6 –2.13 –44 257 20o
4. MEDICAL –0.6% Daily
99 87 87 AA–81.1 Cephalon CEPH79.70 –0.05 –33 2.5m 9o
99 82 94 BA 32.57Cepheid CPHD31.20 –0.63 –44 239 99ê
99 93 87 AD 91.8 EdwdLfSci EW88.25 –0.98 –57 669 44o
99 95 98 A B+44.57HlthSprg HS.43.44 +1.60 +601.5m 11o
99 92 95 BB+52.37IPCn IPCM51.14 –0.10 +5 94 32ê
99 82 87 A B+ 26.27Momenta MNTA 18.74 –0.48 –1 710 8o
5. RETAIL –0.4% Daily
99 98 97 AA–107 Fossil rFOSL.105.3 –1.42 –25 683 27o
99 99 99 AB+78.5 GreenMtCf GMCR 75.56 –0.88 –64 1.4m 72o
99 79 98 AA–17.9 SelctCmft SCSS17.20 –0.21 –57 493 23o
99 98 98 AA–NH 7UltaSalon ULTA.55.51 –0.40 –29 425 45ò
99 96 89 AA–92.77MercadoL .4 MELI.85.59 –1.29 –45 377 61o
KEY DATA: EPS 3 Q Avg 53%, LQ 45%, Next Q 41%, Sales 3Q Avg 24%,
LQ 34%, Next Yr EPS 28%, Pretax 24%, ROE 40%, EPS due 08/04
IBD Top 10 (or so):
Top World stocks:
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
More HOT sectors
Finviz.com HOT sectors:
These don’t line up at all with the sectors that show the best growth/performance in IBD… they are more general categories though
This gives a good overview of the economy:
– it looks like it’s picking up - as more green than red is showing in latter months.
Back to IBD’s list:
LEISURE
99 – NFLX Netflix PE:65
99 – PCLN Priceline
It’s very hard not to like a stock with these fundamentals… even at $526 bucks…
99 – TZOO
Possible short but maybe it’s just taking a breather after a huge runup… below it’s 20DMA but not it’s 50DMA
MEDIA
99 – GNET Glb Traff
RETAIL
99 – LULU LuluLemon
<$10 STOCKS:
ACAD: Acadia pharmaceuticals
Monday, May 9, 2011
TOP Sectors currently
Apparel
98 – GIII GIII apparel $0 debt PE: 15 low profit margins
99 – UA underarmour – debt: 2%; PE: 46 Profit margin: 10.2%
CHEMICAL
99 – ALB Albemar debt:
99- BCPC Balchem
LEISURE
99 – NFLX Netflix PE:65
99 – PCLN Priceline
99 – TZOO
MEDIA
99 – GNET Glb Traff
RETAIL
99 – LULU LuluLemon
SMALL CAP STOCKS:
ACAD: Acadia pharmaceuticals
ARMH a buy?
Sometimes tips should be left on the table…
According to a Gartner report, spending on tablets will increase at an annual average pace of 52% through 2015.
ARM Holdings (ARMH) has been riding the wave of tablet and smartphone sales for several years and the water looks fine for the near future.
After reading about Apple APPL changing their computer CPU lineup to go back to ARM chips from INTEL I got all excited that the stock might jump on the news (temporarily) so I started researching.
ARMH just had a boost from Apple computer yesterday when Apple announced that they would be forsaking INTEL for ARM Chips at least for it’s portable/laptop models. Currently ARM chips are used in the iPad and several other Apple computers/devices. I am not sure that this change will make a big dent in ARM’s overall bottom line. I cannot find information about the volume of chip sales or the impact in the overall chip market that this news will bring.
According to Wikipedia:
The Apple A4 is a package on package (PoP) system-on-a-chip (SoC) designed by Apple and manufactured by Samsung.[1] It combines an ARM Cortex-A8 CPU with a PowerVR GPU, and emphasizes power efficiency.[2] The chip commercially debuted with the release of Apple's iPad tablet;[3] followed shortly by the iPhone 4 smartphone,[4] the 4th generation iPod Touch and the 2nd generation Apple TV. It was superseded in the second-generation iPad, released the following year, by the Apple A5 processor.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
Daily chart: (courtesy of finviz.com)
Weekly chart:
Monthly chart: Holy cow, should have bought in 2009! 
Daily chart (courtesy of Investors Business Daily):
ARM might be bouncing off a daily support level as shown by the above chart.
The more I look at ARMH the less I like it for a BUY and the more I like it for a SHORT… all the financials (fundamentals) show it is at a TOP… but the charts (technicals) show it is at a turning point.
ARMH did bounce a little on the news Friday and went above it’s 50DMA line
I am looking for ARMH to eventually continue to drop below the 20-DMA line along with the 50DMA line.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
With a P/E ratio of 91.47 (IBD shows this as 61) this seems high but this is a relative indicator – sometimes stocks can have very high or very low values and still rocket higher based on the views of investors and funds.
Forward P/E of 51.35 – according to Finviz.com calculations – this value is interpolated based on analysts estimates and we know they are always correct (yeah, right).
I like looking at free cash flow and debt for a company to figure out how long the company could stay afloat without selling anything.
- Cash / share: .35 – not bad, at least they have some cash
- Shares outstanding: 1.35Billion (currently)
- Free cash: 1,035,000,000 * .35 = 362,250,000 (362 million)
- Debt/Equity ratio: 0% – this is great for a company this size = no debt!
- Profit Margin: 30.8% – this is a very high profit margin
Apple is notorious for getting profit margins down due their sheer volume/buying power so ARMH’s profit margins may dwindle if they sell too many chips to Apple but I really don’t see that happening.
- EPS: gained 44% last quarter and Estimated EPS for the year: 23% so it looks like ARMH is handling it’s money well.
- Sales increased 33% last quarter and looks to gain 7% in the next 3 years (kinda slow growth).
- Dividend Yield: .4% this is very unusual for a Technology stock – very few Tech stocks give Dividends
- IBD shows a composite rating of 94 (not bad)
ARMH is a toss-up for me – the fundamentals look very strong but this may not be the opportune time to BUY. If I were to invest I would wait for the Apple news to settle down and see if the stock holds above the 50DMA line. Then start buying as the stock increased in value.
With recent highs near 32 I think about 32.50 is a good buy in point but would test the waters to make sure this wave is going to make it to shore.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
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Tuesday, April 26, 2011
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Saturday, April 16, 2011
Friday, April 15, 2011
ETF Outlook: Healthcare Sector
The XLV and XLU are both showing neutral but on a monthly basis they are looking decent with a 6.3 to 7.7% increase in the first 6 months of 2011
Charts courtesy of Finviz (a great resource)