Market Update

Markets were up mixed yesterday

Dean Foods (DF) must have had a good quarterly number

Intel (INTC) also faired well rising over $5 in a month.

Market update week ending May 15 2011

 

Market sector leaders:

IBD:

 

Finviz:

Healthcare seems to be a winner for the last while.  Financials the biggest loser?  Maybe someone is finally catching on…

1. APPAREL

99 85 80 AA 38.17GildanA .8 r GIL 36.20 –0.90 –44 261 19o

99 91 77 AB 72.4 PhilpsV .2 PVH 69.85 –0.54 –59 421 17ò

99 96 92 B B 80.07UndrArmr UA 66.92 –1.14 –18 831 47o

 

2. CHEMICAL –1.0% Daily Change +12.59

99 87 88 AC+ 135 Lubrizol 1.1 r LZ 134.2 +0.07 –37 1.2m 13

99 93 90 AA–71.4 Albemar 1.0 ALB 68.26 –0.70 –51 502 17o

99 95 91 AA–41.8 Balchem .4 BCPC 41.15 –0.45 –15 76 34o

99 92 94 AB+190 NewMkt 1.4 rNEU 174.8 –4.25 –61 51 13ê

 

3. LEISURE –0.9% Daily

99 99 95 AB+2547Netflix rNFLX 246.5 +0.75 –11 5.0m 70o

96 99 95 AD 5617Priceline PCLN 520.6 –3.35 –26 842 35o

98 91 94 A B 115 Polaris 1.8 PII 102.6 –2.13 –44 257 20o

 

4. MEDICAL –0.6% Daily

99 87 87 AA–81.1 Cephalon CEPH79.70 –0.05 –33 2.5m 9o

99 82 94 BA 32.57Cepheid CPHD31.20 –0.63 –44 239 99ê

99 93 87 AD 91.8 EdwdLfSci EW88.25 –0.98 –57 669 44o

99 95 98 A B+44.57HlthSprg HS.43.44 +1.60 +601.5m 11o

99 92 95 BB+52.37IPCn IPCM51.14 –0.10 +5 94 32ê

99 82 87 A B+ 26.27Momenta MNTA 18.74 –0.48 –1 710 8o

 

5. RETAIL –0.4% Daily

99 98 97 AA–107 Fossil rFOSL.105.3 –1.42 –25 683 27o

99 99 99 AB+78.5 GreenMtCf GMCR 75.56 –0.88 –64 1.4m 72o

99 79 98 AA–17.9 SelctCmft SCSS17.20 –0.21 –57 493 23o

99 98 98 AA–NH 7UltaSalon ULTA.55.51 –0.40 –29 425 45ò

99 96 89 AA–92.77MercadoL .4 MELI.85.59 –1.29 –45 377 61o
KEY DATA: EPS 3 Q Avg 53%, LQ 45%, Next Q 41%, Sales 3Q Avg 24%,
LQ 34%, Next Yr EPS 28%, Pretax 24%, ROE 40%, EPS due 08/04

 

 

 

 

IBD Top 10 (or so):

Top World stocks:

More HOT sectors

Finviz.com HOT sectors:

These don’t line up at all with the sectors that show the best growth/performance in IBD…  they are more general categories though

This gives a good overview of the economy:

– it looks like it’s picking up - as more green than red is showing in latter months.

 

 

Back to IBD’s list:

LEISURE

99 – NFLX Netflix PE:65

 

 

 

99 – PCLN Priceline

It’s very hard not to like a stock with these fundamentals… even at $526 bucks…

 

99 – TZOO

Possible short but maybe it’s just taking a breather after a huge runup… below it’s 20DMA but not it’s 50DMA

 

MEDIA

99 – GNET Glb Traff

 

RETAIL

99 – LULU LuluLemon

 

 

 

<$10 STOCKS:

ACAD: Acadia pharmaceuticals

TOP Sectors currently

Apparel 

98 – GIII GIII apparel $0 debt PE: 15 low profit margins

 

99 – UA underarmour – debt: 2%; PE: 46 Profit margin: 10.2%

 

 

CHEMICAL

99 – ALB Albemar debt:

 

99- BCPC Balchem

 

 

LEISURE

99 – NFLX Netflix PE:65

 

99 – PCLN Priceline

99 – TZOO

 

MEDIA

99 – GNET Glb Traff

 

RETAIL

99 – LULU LuluLemon

 

 

 

 

SMALL CAP STOCKS:

ACAD: Acadia pharmaceuticals

ARMH a buy?

Sometimes tips should be left on the table…

According to a Gartner report, spending on tablets will increase at an annual average pace of 52% through 2015.

ARM Holdings (ARMH) has been riding the wave of tablet and smartphone sales for several years and the water looks fine for the near future.

After reading about Apple APPL changing their computer CPU lineup to go back to ARM chips from INTEL I got all excited that the stock might jump on the news (temporarily) so I started researching.

ARMH just had a boost from Apple computer yesterday when Apple announced that they would be forsaking INTEL for ARM Chips at least for it’s portable/laptop models.  Currently ARM chips are used in the iPad and several other Apple computers/devices.  I am not sure that this change will make a big dent in ARM’s overall bottom line.  I cannot find information about the volume of chip sales or the impact in the overall chip market that this news will bring.

 

According to Wikipedia:

The Apple A4 is a package on package (PoP) system-on-a-chip (SoC) designed by Apple and manufactured by Samsung.^[1] It combines an ARM Cortex-A8 CPU with a PowerVR GPU, and emphasizes power efficiency.^[2] The chip commercially debuted with the release of Apple's iPad tablet;^[3] followed shortly by the iPhone 4 smartphone,^[4] the 4th generation iPod Touch and the 2nd generation Apple TV. It was superseded in the second-generation iPad, released the following year, by the Apple A5 processor.

 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

Daily chart: (courtesy of finviz.com)

Weekly chart:

Monthly chart: Holy cow, should have bought in 2009!  

 

Daily chart (courtesy of Investors Business Daily):

ARM might be bouncing off a daily support level as shown by the above chart. 

The more I look at ARMH the less I like it for a BUY and the more I like it for a SHORT… all the financials (fundamentals) show it is at a TOP… but the charts (technicals) show it is at a turning point.

ARMH did bounce a little on the news Friday and went above it’s 50DMA line

I am looking for ARMH to eventually continue to drop below the 20-DMA line along with the 50DMA line. 

 

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

With a P/E ratio of 91.47 (IBD shows this as 61) this seems high but this is a relative indicator – sometimes stocks can have very high or very low values and still rocket higher based on the views of investors and funds.

Forward P/E of 51.35 – according to Finviz.com calculations – this value is interpolated based on analysts estimates and we know they are always correct (yeah, right).

I like looking at free cash flow and debt for a company to figure out how long the company could stay afloat without selling anything.

• Cash / share: .35 – not bad, at least they have some cash
• Shares outstanding: 1.35Billion (currently)
• Free cash: 1,035,000,000 * .35 = 362,250,000 (362 million)
• Debt/Equity ratio: 0% – this is great for a company this size = no debt!
• Profit Margin: 30.8% – this is a very high profit margin

Apple is notorious for getting profit margins down due their sheer volume/buying power so ARMH’s profit margins may dwindle if they sell too many chips to Apple but I really don’t see that happening.

• EPS: gained 44% last quarter and Estimated EPS for the year: 23% so it looks like ARMH is handling it’s money well. 
• Sales increased 33% last quarter and looks to gain 7% in the next 3 years (kinda slow growth). 
• Dividend Yield: .4% this is very unusual for a Technology stock – very few Tech stocks give Dividends
• IBD shows a composite rating of 94 (not bad)

 

ARMH is a toss-up for me – the fundamentals look very strong but this may not be the opportune time to BUY.   If I were to invest I would wait for the Apple news to settle down and see if the stock holds above the 50DMA line.  Then start buying as the stock increased in value. 

With recent highs near 32 I think about 32.50 is a good buy in point but would test the waters to make sure this wave is going to make it to shore.

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Daily, Weekly, Monthly Analysis

 

Courtesy of finviz.com

ETF Outlook: Healthcare Sector

The XLV and XLU are both showing neutral but on a monthly basis they are looking decent with a 6.3 to 7.7% increase in the first 6 months of 2011

Charts courtesy of Finviz (a great resource)

Getting Maximo 7.1.1.8 installed with pro solutions

Here is the install order for Maximo 7.1.1.8 with a whole bunch of industry solutions:

CoLoRs My WoRlD

These are some colors
BLUE    RED  GREEN

Housing slumping further?

Posted from Investors Business Daily:






-

Stocks to watch

Here are some decent stocks worth taking note of since the market started falling this week. A lot of over-bought stocks have fallen below their 10-week moving average lines and might be decent buys depending how the markets react to the bedlam in the Middle East.

Oil is generally conversely related to stock prices so when oil rises stocks usually fall (S&P, NASDAQ, and NYSE). The current over-supply of mid-East crude will get sucked up in a few months and oil prices will rise accordingly based on simple demand/supply.

When the supply dwindles due to crises or OPEC not increasing supply (or both) then the prices will go up and eventually OPEC will start producing more because over $100 oil makes them lots of money. In turn the higher prices not only affect pump prices but food prices and transportation prices. These price hikes affect many other production costs including energy production costs. The costs of all these price hikes are then passed on to you and me as consumers through higher prices at the pump and on the store shelves.

How much money do you want to make?

One thing that I very much admired about my younger sister was that from the age of 12 she had a diary containing a written plan for everything she wanted to do with her life including the type of man she would eventually marry. We made fun of her for being so starry-eyed but she made us look like fools later in life. As a mother of two successful children, a teacher for many years, a successful realtor, and marriage that has lasted over 20 years I consider her to be a great success. She may not have gotten everything perfectly the way she wrote it down but the power was on her side to make wise decisions which directed her path to success.

The amount of money you create every day at your job currently or after you graduate may seem like a lot especially if you have been a student and have been moon-lighting flipping burgers.

Most people start out their working lives around $30K per year annual salary. Many may feel they have hit the lottery when those first paychecks start rolling in and that money burns tiny volcanic holes in their pockets.
They soon find that there are many new bills to pay and those nice people at the credit card companies are only nice when they are extending the credit that we so "deserve".

When it comes time to pay or especially if you fall behind in your payments and cannot get your bank account to balance (you did learn how to balance a bank account after 4 years of College right?) those "nice" people have suddenly been replaced with someone who refuses to take "no" for an answer and insists that you make some sort of payment today.

Suddenly all that moola you were rolling in does not seem like it goes very far and actually you feel like maybe you need to make even more to stay afloat.

The way out of all of this is to do the thing that most of our U.S. Federal, State and local Governments cannot seem to do: balance a budget i.e. Live within their means.

Without a budget and a PLAN to live within that budget then no matter how much money you make in a given year (especially after taxes are paid) you will NEVER be able to make enough money to get ahead. You see it all the time on Television: the multi-millionaire Professional sports athlete who had it all and then within a few years of going from making very little money to making millions they are in bankruptcy court.

It is the same principle of a purse or hard drive: no matter how large the capacity, without a little planning it can go from being "cavernous" to bulging at the seams with stuff.

Nature abhors a vacuum and the same holds true for personal finances. If their is a hole in your budget you can bet a bill will be there to fill it and then some.

A recent study showed that only about 20% of people had a plan for their lives (including finances) and of those only about 5% had a WRITTEN plan to guide their lives.

Don't be one of the 95 percenters, be in the 5th percentile like my sister was. Write down a plan for the next month, 6 months, year, 5-years and even further if you are so bold.

Location:Bay Haven Way,League City,United States

US will be 1/3 Latino before long

Start brushing up on your Spanish...



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Assignment 1

My hobbies: Stocks, I love everything about the Stock Market and especially the psychological aspects.


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Oil driving inflation

"No inflation in sight"...
Famous last words by the Fed chairmen past and present
Oil is generally conversely related to stock prices so when oil rises stocks usually fall (S&P, NASDAQ, and NYSE). The current over-supply of mid-East crude will get sucked up in a few months and oil prices will rise accordingly based on simple demand/supply.

When the supply dwindles due to crises or OPEC not increasing supply (or both) then the prices will go up and eventually OPEC will start producing more because over $100 oil makes them lots of money. Actually OPEC has been upping their production steadily since oil went over $90/barrel.

In turn the higher prices not only affect pump prices but food prices and transportation prices. These price hikes affect many other production costs including energy production costs. The costs of all these price hikes are then passed on to you and me as consumers through higher prices at the pump and on the store shelves.

Chart of Inflation index








Crude Pricing


Energy Prices

Stocks trading down again today

Real-time equity news [U E]
U.S. stock market report [.N]

1450 ET 6Oct2010-Chipmakers down but SOX still on uptrend
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PHLX semiconductor index <.SOX>, down 2 percent, was on track on
Wednesday to post its largest daily percentage drop since Aug. 30 as Xilinx Inc
and Altera Corp tumbled after a brokerage downgrade. For
details, see [ID:nN06111779]
But the index's uptrend, going back to the Aug. 30 lows, is still intact
from a technical point of view. The 14-day moving average, just above 342,
provided strong support, while separate trend lines show further support near
340 and 329.
Reuters Messaging: rodrigo.campos.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

1438 ET 6Oct2010-Call sellers emerge in Cirrus as shares fall
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chipmaker Cirrus Logic Inc dropped 5.08 percent to $16.25 during
the afternoon session. In the options market, it appears that some investors
sold calls as the stock slide, said WhatsTrading.com options strategist
Frederic Ruffy. Overall options volume was 3.6 times the stock's daily average,
according to Trade Alert. About 25,000 puts and 3,594 calls traded in Cirrus by
2:31 p.m. EDT. The top trade is a lot of 342 November $14 calls on the $3 bid
as 2,484 contracts now traded, he said. The November $15 calls are the busiest
line as 3,412 changed hands with 81 percent of the volume on bid price. The Dec
$15, Nov $16, Dec $17.5, and Dec $16 calls are seeing interest as well. The
call selling helped push the stock's option implied volatility down 5 percent
to 57 percent.
Reuters Messaging: doris.frankel.reuters.com@reuters.net

1421 ET 6Oct2010-Citrix options volume swells as shares slump
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Citrix Systems shares tumbled 11.01 percent to $62.23 and is
falling in sympathy with data center services provider Equinix Inc ,
which issued a revenue warning late on Tuesday, said WhatsTrading.com options
strategist Frederic Ruffy. For details, see [ID:nSGE6950JIA] [ID:nSGE6940LF]
Overall options volume was 7.7 times greater than the stock's daily average
as about 33,000 puts and 34,000 calls traded in Citrix by 2:12 p.m. EDT,
according to Trade Alert. Option bears initiated near term strategies in
Citrix, which makes virtualization software, while the bulls positioned for an
intermediate term rebound by buying call spreads, said Interactive Brokers
Group options analyst Caitlin Duffy. Ruffy noted one trade included the
November $65-$70 put spread, apparently sold at $3.10 and might be a
liquidating position since both contracts are in-the-money. It also appears a
January 2012 $55-$75 bullish risk-reversal was initiated at a dime. The Dec
$65-$70 call spread was apparently bought at $2.20 and $2.15, Ruffy said.
Reuters Messaging: doris.frankel.reuters.com@reuters.net

1301 ET 6Oct2010-Genzyme options trade looks for higher bid
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
France's Sanofi-Aventis launched an $18.5 billion hostile bid for biotech
Genzyme Corp and its offering $69 a share, but traders are positioning
for that price to go higher, optionMonster said on its website. The firm's
tracking systems detected the purchase of more than 13,000 April $75 calls on
GENZ for $1.60 per contract against open interest of 1,283 contracts, said
optionMonster analyst David Russell. There was also buying in the October $75
strike calls for nine cents apiece, which could represent a cheap bet by an
investor that the takeover price will be raised this month, he added. Genzyme
shares rose 2 cents to $71.54 and have been moving in a tight range since the
Sanofi offer was made. Sanofi will eventually have to raise its offer, already
rejected by Genzyme a month ago, investors and analysts said after the tender
offer was announced on Monday. For details, see [ID:nLDE69302S]
[ID:nN04187598]
"Today's call buying is apparently the work of investors who think that
Genzyme will hold out for a significantly higher price," Russell said. In all,
about 29,000 calls and 2,000 puts traded in Genzyme by 1:01 p.m. EDT, according
to Trade Alert.
Reuters Messaging: doris.frankel.reuters.com@reuters.net
Keywords: MARKETS STOCKSNEWS



Real-time equity news [U E]
U.S. stock market report [.N]

1450 ET 6Oct2010-Chipmakers down but SOX still on uptrend
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PHLX semiconductor index <.SOX>, down 2 percent, was on track on Wednesday to post its largest daily percentage drop since Aug. 30 as Xilinx Inc and Altera Corp tumbled after a brokerage downgrade. For
details, see [ID:nN06111779]
But the index's uptrend, going back to the Aug. 30 lows, is still intact
from a technical point of view. The 14-day moving average, just above 342,
provided strong support, while separate trend lines show further support near
340 and 329.
Reuters Messaging: rodrigo.campos.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

1438 ET 6Oct2010-Call sellers emerge in Cirrus as shares fall
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chipmaker Cirrus Logic Inc dropped 5.08 percent to $16.25 during
the afternoon session. In the options market, it appears that some investors
sold calls as the stock slide, said WhatsTrading.com options strategist
Frederic Ruffy. Overall options volume was 3.6 times the stock's daily average,
according to Trade Alert. About 25,000 puts and 3,594 calls traded in Cirrus by
2:31 p.m. EDT. The top trade is a lot of 342 November $14 calls on the $3 bid
as 2,484 contracts now traded, he said. The November $15 calls are the busiest
line as 3,412 changed hands with 81 percent of the volume on bid price. The Dec
$15, Nov $16, Dec $17.5, and Dec $16 calls are seeing interest as well. The
call selling helped push the stock's option implied volatility down 5 percent
to 57 percent.
Reuters Messaging: doris.frankel.reuters.com@reuters.net

1421 ET 6Oct2010-Citrix options volume swells as shares slump
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Citrix Systems shares tumbled 11.01 percent to $62.23 and is
falling in sympathy with data center services provider Equinix Inc ,
which issued a revenue warning late on Tuesday, said WhatsTrading.com options
strategist Frederic Ruffy. For details, see [ID:nSGE6950JIA] [ID:nSGE6940LF]
Overall options volume was 7.7 times greater than the stock's daily average
as about 33,000 puts and 34,000 calls traded in Citrix by 2:12 p.m. EDT,
according to Trade Alert. Option bears initiated near term strategies in
Citrix, which makes virtualization software, while the bulls positioned for an
intermediate term rebound by buying call spreads, said Interactive Brokers
Group options analyst Caitlin Duffy. Ruffy noted one trade included the
November $65-$70 put spread, apparently sold at $3.10 and might be a
liquidating position since both contracts are in-the-money. It also appears a
January 2012 $55-$75 bullish risk-reversal was initiated at a dime. The Dec
$65-$70 call spread was apparently bought at $2.20 and $2.15, Ruffy said.
Reuters Messaging: doris.frankel.reuters.com@reuters.net

1301 ET 6Oct2010-Genzyme options trade looks for higher bid
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
France's Sanofi-Aventis launched an $18.5 billion hostile bid for biotech
Genzyme Corp and its offering $69 a share, but traders are positioning
for that price to go higher, optionMonster said on its website. The firm's
tracking systems detected the purchase of more than 13,000 April $75 calls on
GENZ for $1.60 per contract against open interest of 1,283 contracts, said
optionMonster analyst David Russell. There was also buying in the October $75
strike calls for nine cents apiece, which could represent a cheap bet by an
investor that the takeover price will be raised this month, he added. Genzyme
shares rose 2 cents to $71.54 and have been moving in a tight range since the
Sanofi offer was made. Sanofi will eventually have to raise its offer, already
rejected by Genzyme a month ago, investors and analysts said after the tender
offer was announced on Monday. For details, see [ID:nLDE69302S]
[ID:nN04187598]
"Today's call buying is apparently the work of investors who think that
Genzyme will hold out for a significantly higher price," Russell said. In all,
about 29,000 calls and 2,000 puts traded in Genzyme by 1:01 p.m. EDT, according
to Trade Alert.
Reuters Messaging: doris.frankel.reuters.com@reuters.net
Keywords: MARKETS STOCKSNEWS




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Location:5 Ave SW,Calgary,Canada