Adrian Abshire Stock Insights

Monday, July 4, 2011

Market Update for July 4th 2011

 

I forgot today was a day off for the markets but will take a monthly look back at this time.

The market looks as though it is making a bounce but with the short week there may just be a bunch of short selling (people trying to get out of their short trades).

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Another green day – mostly.  Maybe we will start another uptrend but I think the volume may be the problem – a sign of short selling?

 

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Not really sure what a ‘conglomerate’ is but they are doing great!

Industrial Goods are up along with the usual Healthcare. 

Basic Materials is getting hammered – maybe due to raw input costs?

Monday, June 27, 2011

Is the PC dead?

I have used PCs for the last 20 years or so – I started back in the early 80’s.  I’ve used everything from a 8086 to a quad-processor Intel and even a Mac Lisa (built in 1979-1986) that my Mom bought years ago for around $8000. 

Like many technologies, the PC will soon be obsolete except where true horsepower is really needed to run workstation-style applications like CAD but even their days may be numbered.

Remember in the 80’s when the big push was to get away from that giant piece of hardware to a smaller style of machine which could, dare I say, be portable?  We saw Compaq laptops with miniscule amber and black screens that were touted as “luggables”. 

The 90’s came and went, and the PC lived in glory along with myriad Macintosh computers. Larger hard drives, larger software applications, more storage options, more peripherals to choose from and most importantly, the Operating System. The O/S has grown from a couple of Megabytes to many Gigabytes in size over the years with more features packed in to supposedly make our lives simpler (never happened) and our computers easier to deal with (again, never happened). The push to go from huge servers in a back room serving up text to small amber (or green) monitors in a computer lab to the PC was over and now everyone had a PC.  Suddenly from out of nowhere the laptops were getting to a form that was a manageable size to carry around with us and we could use them anywhere.  The size was not the only thing that helped the technology, the all-out assault on our daily lives of cellphones and data-capable devices enabled us to use our laptops just about anywhere we wanted. 

Enter the Apple iPad and the beginning of a new era in computing.  For years just about every major manufacturer has tried to create and market a tablet PC like the ones we used to see Captain Kirk using on the TV show StarTrek while he perused the halls of the Enterprise reading a book or going through his schedule or logs.  The iPad brought a device that common ordinary people could afford and was easy to use. 

While I am not a huge Apple Fanboy I can appreciate the iPad’s draw – I was one of the early adopters, not having any other Apple products in my house at the time (only PC server, laptops, and desktops).  After owning the device for about a week I declared it ‘marvelous’ and soon could not live without it.  My iPad sits next to me as I write this and it is being used currently to look up that Apple Lisa that my Mom bought so many years ago (in 1982 or so) – have you noticed how many “all-in-ones” there are on the market now similar to the Lisa? 

I have to admit with the speed of change and all the advances in the field of “Cloud” computing that the impending onslaught of even more personal computers in the form of tablets has taken me aback.  While this is a good thing as far as freedom to work or play wherever and whenever we want, it looks like we have come full circle to the giant rooms full of hardware serving up pages for our consumption.  While this is not a bad thing at all it spells certain doom for a PC that once dominated our lives.  With the advent of the tablet form factor (that actually works), the Internet and Cloud computing the PC that I am now typing on may one day (very soon) be a dinosaur in the back of our closets or donated to the local charity of our choice. 

Just remember I told you so.

Adrian

Thursday, June 16, 2011

DOWN AGAIN

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The market sold off again after a bounce due probably to short selling (when shorts sell their stocks to take some gains on their trades).

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I am seeing a support level at 1232 but who knows what the Greek debacle will do in the near future.  I believe the Greeks will not give up and the Germans or other EU countries will help bail them out.

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

EOG drilling Texas

 

EOG oil exploration

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MRO Marathon Oil

Check out MRO also – just bought 250000 acres in west Texas’ Ford Shale fields… they are betting that oil stays about $60/barrel – I think they are a good bet

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I am going to start watching this one!

Market trends

SMTC

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Still on the rise but at the top of the channel

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Watch the Stockastic line!  it may be crossing again as the stock goes down -

FUNDAMENTALS:

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Fundys on SMTC look great -

 

EMC

The makers of VMWare are doing well

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Good Industry group rating and we are in an UPTREND now

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No debt

VMWare

Owned by EMC:

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Looks like a CUP with high handle (IBD) and a buy point around 99

Buy (limit) 100 shares @99.28

Fundamentals:

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EMC will be a slow grower in the coming years it looks like

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E-MINI

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Looking like a down day today (but you never know) …

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Stocks I’m watching

 

STMC – Semtech – maybe going higher?

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looks like almost a head and shoulders pattern here on the daily

I bought this stock at $27 and may buy some more before long.

Currently it is at $28.25 or so I may wait for it to pull back some before jumping on some more.

MACD is heading positive again (black); Stockastics are middling (not much help but they are crossing again so maybe they will help out the decision point – if they cross here it might be a good time to buy.

 

Buying the /ES (S&P 500 e-mini) – not sure why it’s going up but it is and I’m going to ride it to some profits…

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Market Sector Analysis

 

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RETAIL

MEDICAL – HealthCare?

MEDIA

INSURANCE

FOOD/BEV

AEROSPACE

UTILITY

TELECOM

SOFTWARE

OFFICE

METALS

MACHINE

Market Trends

Market is still in a correction

The major indexes have been up a little

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/ES (S&P mini) might be at a rebound point

If the channel above means anything then we might be bouncing soon.

 

Sector Analysis

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The ‘least’ bad is Healthcare.  Surprisingly it looks like Tech is one of the worst performing of the bunch.  The further out one looks the worse it gets – it is down there with Financials…

Not sure which of these paints the most accurate picture – for the long-term the 1 year performance or the year-to-date performance seem to make sense but they give different answers to the question.

 

IBD Industry analysis:

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Medical/Healthcare is at the top of this list also

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Weekly stock bubbles (thank you finviz.com)

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Stocks just out of Bases

Ancestry.com ACOM

 

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Monday, May 23, 2011

Buy list?–Top 50 under $50

Current market: DOWN

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TTMI - T T M Tech

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Had a nice channel going until a few days ago

– may be a better SHORT

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SSW - Seaspan Corp

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MNTA - Momenta Pharma

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SPRD - Spreadtrum Commimage

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AH - Accretive Health Inc

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This one may be over the cliff too far…

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ARMH - A R M Holdings

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That doesn’t bode well…

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SMTC - Semtech Corporation

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NO DEBT, earnings rising, looks like a good one!

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Maybe should have waited for the 50SMA but it should still catch hold eventually – will add to LONG list

TIBX - Tibco Software

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I have liked Tibco for a long time – maybe it’s because I am a systems integrator and know the value of this software ilk…

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EZPW – Ezcorp

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REVERSAL PATTERN – but which way? Judging from the volume I would guess down but will research more… Head and Shoulders pattern?  3 bases pattern?

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ABV - Comp De Bebidas

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CUP WITH HANDLE???

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Great fundamentals too - THIS may be a BUY!  Need to figure out a buy price…

 

ORCL - Oracle Corp

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Slow and steady grower…

RVBD - Riverbed Tech

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ACOM - Ancestry.com

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Good growth but the P/E is super high – another dot com???

there are more but this is a good list to start